CƠ SỞ PHƯƠNG PHÁP LUẬN ĐIỀU CHỈNH CHIẾN LƯỢC PHÁT TRIỂN NĂNG LƯỢNG TRÊN QUAN ĐIỂM AN NINH NĂNG LƯỢNG
Tạp chí Khoa học năng lượng – IES
(Số 01-2013)
Bài báo đã xuất bản tại: INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE CONFERENCE ENERGY AND GREEN DEVELOPMENT, Hanoi, 2012. ISBN: 978-604-913-094-6, Natural Science and Technology Publishing House, PP.17-24
Edelev Aleksei V. , Senderov Sergey M.
Melentiev Energy Systems Institute - Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences - Russia, Irkutsk, Lermontov Str., 130
Email: flower@isem.sei.irk.ru
Tóm tắt:
Bài báo trình bày một cách tiếp cận nghiên cứu các chiến lược phát triển ngành năng lượng của LB Nga. Mục đích của nghiên cứu là hình thành các cơ sở khoa học để điều chỉnh các chiến lược phát triển năng lượng của chính phủ có xét đến các yêu cầu về an ninh năng lượng quốc gia. Đây là cách tiếp cận dựa trên các phương pháp mô hình hóa kết hợp được Viện các Hệ thống Năng lượng Melentiev (LB Nga) phát triển.
Abstract:
The paper addresses an approach to research Russia’s energy sector development. The goal is to form directions of adjustment of the energy sector development strategies proposed by government institutions taking into account the requirements of energy security of country. Considered approach is based on the combinatorial modeling methods, which are developed at Energy Systems Institute named after L. A. Melentiev of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences.
In control problems for the fuel and energy complex (FEC) of the various states is extremely important to take into account the issues of the basic requirements of energy security (ES). During the formation of the State Energy Strategy development options for the medium and long term, it is important to fully consider the possibility of implementing various strategic threats to ES and the reliability of supply of fuel and energy consumers of the country in the current plan, especially with the possible implementation of emergency (Emergency). At the same time, under the ES pony ripped apart the state of security of the citizens and the economy of the state from threats deficit to ensure their needs economically affordable energy resources of acceptable quality in the long and the current plan, including during an emergency.
Self-sufficiency in energy resources of different countries vary significantly according to their position from the standpoint of energy security. Generally such key factors are as follows:
• the ability of the economy to energy and implement adequate uninterrupted supply of energy, making conditions for stable functioning and development of the economy and to maintain a sufficient standard of living;
• ability of consumers to use energy efficiently, limit the demand for it, thus reducing the deficit of the energy balance;
• balance of supply and demand for energy resources are commensurate with the economic substantiation Nova volume of import and export of energy resources;
• favorable socio-political, legal, economic and international conditions for implementation of the producers and consumers of energy resources above-listed skills.
How to take into account the interests of energy security in a variety of possible scenarios for the development of economy and energy state? It seems that one of the necessary conditions for the solution of this problem are to develop a system for monitoring energy security related parameters - indicators which check the most important aspects of the functionality and the potential development of the energy sector.
The values of these indicators should adequately characterize the composition and depth of the threats to energy security of the state, in order to analyze the emerging or fading negative trends. Because of the complex interrelationships and interdependencies in the number of such energy indicators can be quite large. Thus one can be private, calculated on the basis of primary data on the state of a process, and others - integrated, generalizing a number of close or related processes.
Issues highlight the most important indicators of dedicated development [1, 2], today can be assessed in various ways of the order of a hundred indicators of different levels.
For a more efficient perception of many indicators of energy security, by an expert in the case of Russia, has been isolated part of the most important indicators for the level of the country:
• The average physical depreciation of fixed assets by industry FEC;
• The proportion of the dominant fuel in fuel balance;
• relation to expected short supply of energy resources to consumers in Russia as a whole to the total demand for them;
• the ratio of annual industrial growth of recoverable reserves of primary energy resources in their production;
• ratio of the actual production capacity exceeding sectors of the Energy for the supply of resources to the total demand for them (including exports);
• relative decrease (increase) of energy intensity of gross domestic product.
Unlike Russia - volatile countries and exports its energy resources, for many states the portion of the dominant fuel in the fuel mix is extremely important to monitor the share of imported energy, and especially the share of the largest supplier of energy (region, country, company) in their total imports.
Naturally, by themselves without a corresponding indicator value processing and interpretation does not allow us to speak about a crisis or non-crisis related phenomena and processes. To estimate the values of the indicator must be justified certain thresholds, such as:
- Pre-crisis as the threshold between acceptable and pre-crisis state in terms of energy described by this indicator;
- The crisis as the threshold between pre-crisis and crisis (unacceptable) states.
Comparison of the estimated value of the indicator to its threshold allows us to speak of the quality status (degree of crisis) of the process or phenomenon. Thus it is possible to estimate a separate indicator (a single event), but to assess the level of energy security in a particular state or scenario of economic and energy needs to be a mechanism of convolution values of all the indicators taken into account, are often directly or indirectly related to each other. In other words, we are talking about some kind of an integrated assessment of the level of ES as possible taking into account the expected changes in the state of most indicators on the given term.
Said integrated assessment can be obtained using mathematical models that adequately reflect the most important aspects of functioning and development of energy industries and their relationships. The first refers to the model of the functioning and development of the fuel and energy complex of the country, are seen in the complex operation and direction of all power systems to meet the needs of the economy for energy. To support in terms of information and research on approximation FEC balance model to the realities of the functioning and development of specific energy systems are the industry simulations.
Implementation of the relevant research on such complex models is shown connected with the cross-cutting aspects of the reliability of fuel and energy and allows an integrated assess the possibility of energy to meet consumer finite-governmental energy in various operating conditions and under different scenarios. At the same time, certainly allows for the possibility of diversifying fuel and energy supply and interchangeability of fuels.
The general scheme of studies has two levels:
1. A comprehensive assessment of the impact of possible changes in the energy and power systems in general, the identification of weaknesses in the fuel and energy consumers and the formation of possible solutions for the energy security of the country;
2. Evaluation versions of energy systems to meet the requirements of ES and justification directions update these variants for ES state.
The basis for the research related to the justification for directions on updating energy scenarios (based on a comparison of indicator values corresponding to the scenario, with their thresholds) may be the economic and mathematical model of FEC [3]. This model allows to assess the current state of the fuel and energy complex in normal and emergency cases, and to find the direction of adjustment of proposed versions of FEC development in terms of energy security.
Solved with the help of this model the task of optimizing the balance of energy resources in the Russian regions from the standpoint of energy security is in the mathematical sense of the classical problem of linear programming. In terms of energy research sense, the problem is based on the territorial-production model with blocks of power, heat, gas and coal supply systems and crude oil refining system.
In analyzing the results of optimization calculations for the considered emergency cases are defined:
a) the size of a possible deficit in certain types of energy at the considered categories of customers for different areas in the whole country (as the magnitude of the discrepancy between the need and the opportunity given the production of this type of energy source, as well as the resources and opportunities of its supplies from other regions or import substitution of other types of energy resources, etc.);
b) change the capacity of interregional transport links, determined by comparing the indicators of considered variants with the reference;
c) installed capacity of power plants, as well as the distribution of certain types of energy in terms of customer. This is done through an analysis of related specific economic indicators of the assessment of the costs of providing additional requirements for each type of fuel and energy in the federal districts.
The second component of the research is simulation of operation of energy systems like oil supply, gas supply and crude oil refinery system. [3] Unlike FEC balance model, the model is mainly focused on the daily time interval, and allows to study all the possible changes in the fuel and power supply in case of possible emergency cases and to find the most "weak" technology space, preventing the normal supply of fuel- and energy consumers.
The study of certain energy sector development scenarios can give the cost and possible solutions volumes of undersupply of energy consumers as a result of impact of some threats of energy security. Additional research may give the cost of activities to fully meet the energy demands in a given situation. Of course, in order to obtain adequate assessments, special attention should be paid to the formation of financial and performance indicators used win the calculations. It is necessary to reflect equipment wear out, the state of energy resource storages and reserves, and the dynamics of specific power-consumption reduction or increase, and the values of possible imports of the missing energy as most important indicators.
Having defined the cost of running the opportunities in the investigated scenarios of energy sector development, one can give comparisons of different options. The main subject for comparison with the sum of the following components will be:
- The cost of solutions to the conditions dictated by the investigated variant of FEC development, including the implementation of threats to energy security (with the possible lack of energy resources);
- The cost of entering the ability to meet the total energy demand in the circumstances.
Through research on the economic and mathematical model of the FEC with adequate description of the processes, one can take into account the values of most indicators describing the technological, financial and economic characteristics of the operation of the energy sector. The result is a kind of an integrated assessment of the level of ES in the part, and in that aspect, which are described in the model accounted indicator set.
Monitor the dynamics of values and the values themselves of the most important indicators and try to build on their analysis solutions to the problems involved it is extremely important to maintain an acceptable level of ES in the country. To realize it, one can only follow the practice of considering all possible scenarios of energy states, in terms of EB and selecting solutions that meet its requirements and, of course, fit into a reasonable investment framework. And on the basis of expert analysis, rational from the standpoint of ES, the possible energy states can form specific areas of adjustments of energy sector development from the standpoint of energy security.
Finally it is necessary to form a reasonably complete set of all the feasible energy sector development scenarios for the future. To solve this task combinatorial methods of modeling [4] are applied, which allow:
• to create options for the energy sector development and to assess their validity for resource, financial and other constraints;
• to compare options with different criteria to select the most suitable;
• to identify best the development path in terms of ES.
At the initial stage of the research the infrastructure of EC is divided into several components, for example, on a territorial basis. For the each component experts create a graph based on the reference years. Then, by combining different components belonging to the same time in moment a set of states FEC for specific moment in time is made. FEC states correspondent nodes of the FEC development are linked by transitions (Figure 1).
Each transition from one state to the next is development path FEC with own cost and peculiarities of fuel and electricity consumer supply. The path passing through the nodes 1, 5, 7 on Figure 1 may be preferable by financial conditions and to ensure minimum energy shortages for consumers compared to other paths, but nodes 5 and 7, for example, cannot meet the ES requirements due to exceeding the thresholds of important ES (for example threshold of fuel imports from one supplier is significantly exceeded). Therefore one can select slightly more expensive path, consisting of nodes 1, 2 and 9, and meets the requirements of ES.
The conceptions of this part of the proposed approach are illustrated below. Let simplistically analyze possible future development of the two or three energy systems, for example, let it be nuclear, gas and coal systems. Suppose that in perspective up to 2020 the production capacity of these systems can be developed moderate or remain at the same level (characteristic of the level of development - 1) and can develop rapidly (characteristic of the level of development - 2). Moments in time are assigned as follows: the initial cut - at 2005, next cut at 2010, and the final cut at 2020. As considered the territory of Russia consists of three economic zones: European part, Ural-Siberia and Far East.
Figure 1. FEC development graph
So for each economic area, each of the three selected energy systems can be developed with characteristic 1 (moderately) or with characteristic 2 (intensively). Transitions are possible between all states at different moments in time. For example, a possible graph of nuclear system development of the European part is shown in Figure 2. The structure of graph of development of other energy systems is the same for European part and is duplicated for other economic zones. The number 1 or 2, located directly behind the characteristic, denote rate of energy system development at given moment in time.
Then the graphs of possible alternatives of energy sector development up to 2020 are generated for each economic zone. For zone one can consider transitions between eight possible states (3 energy systems, two possible states) for each moment in time. Therefore 16 possible states of the energy sector except for initial must be analyzed in such a graph in terms of ES.
The graph of country FEC development can be generated by means of combination of different energy sector states of various zones. Even for such simple example, 512 different combinations have to be considered for one moment in time. Respectively, 1024 combinations have to be considered for two moments in time except for one initial state. Only a fragment comprising four possible states of the FEC of country for each moment in future is shown in Figure 3 due to huge size of the estimated graph. Estimating cost of each possible state it is possible to extract from the whole graph an aggregate of rational paths in terms of minimum of the cost of functionality and possible deficiency of energy resources as for example shown in Figure 4.
Figure 2. Possible development graph of nuclear power system of European part of Russia
Sure, taking into account reasonable division of the country the energy sector development strategy should be correspondent with regions and thus number of paths to be investigated may be too big. This is evident even from the simple example above. To choose an advisable number of paths is another problem to be solved. Probably, it may be used approach of cutting of unacceptable paths. The major factors to cut may be follows reasons: excessive cost of path (in comparison with planned costs), the significant exceeding of threshold of the most important indicators of ES, or the path can contain logically incompatible FEC states at different moments in time.
Figure 3. Parts of FEC development graph
Figure 4. An example of rational path of FEC development with regard to ES of Russia
The selected (for example, as shown in Figure 4) rational in terms of ES path may be not a really rational energy development strategy of the country. Its characteristics simply suggest that, for all the others considered paths are either expensive or may be worse in terms of ensuring ES in some aspects. Probably neighbor to the "rational" paths are even more valuable from the expert's point of view. And the whole point is (and it is the final stage of proposed algorithm above) to determine as much as possible close to the rational paths of FEC development and to form on their basis the directions of adjustment of considered (proposed by government institutions) the energy sector development strategies, taking into account the requirements of energy security of country.
Above is an example for Russia, where the basic components to create possible paths of FEC development are separate regions and their energy strategies. The considered approaches are certainly applicable for other countries, where other basic components to create energy sector development ways may be chosen. For example, for countries which depend on import of energy resources and the challenges of their energy security are definitely important, one can use kinds and amounts of used energy resources, exporters and the volumes of energy resources to be imported at various moments in time, the required levels of energy resources and sources diversification.
References
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[2] Стратегические угрозы энергетической безопасности России до 2020 г. / В.И. Рабчук, Н.И. Пяткова, С.М. Сендеров и др. Препринт. / Иркутск: ИСЭМ СО РАН, 2004. – 41 с.
[3] Бондаренко А.Н., Пяткова Н.И., Сендеров С.М. и др. Применение двухуровневой технологии исследований при решении проблем энергетической безопасности // Известия РАН. Энергетика. 2000. № 6, С. 31–39.
[4] Региональный энергетический комплекс (особенности формирования, методы исследования) / А.Ф.Ануфриев, Г.М.Вишерская, В.И.Зоркальцев и др. – Л.: Наука. Ленингр. отд-ние, 1988, - 200 с.
