CHIẾN LƯỢC PHÁT TRIỂN NĂNG LƯỢNG XANH VÀ BỀN VỮNG CHO VIỆT NAM: MỘT HƯỚNG ĐẢM BẢO CHO AN NINH NĂNG LƯỢNG QUỐC GIA
Tạp chí Khoa học năng lượng – IES
(Số 01-2014)
Bài báo đã xuất bản tại: THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE CONFERENCE ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT, Hanoi, 2013. ISBN: 978-604-913-137-0, Publishing House for Science and Technology, PP.21-28
Dr. Alexei V. Edelev, Dr. Alexei V. Tchemezov
Energy Systems Institute Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science
Russia, Irkutsk, Lermontov Str., 130
E-mail: alexedelev@gmail.com
MSc. Nguyễn Hoài Nam, Dr. Đoàn Văn Bình
Institute of Energy Science
18 - Hoàng Quốc Việt, Cầu Giấy, Hà Nội
Energy Systems Institute Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science
Russia, Irkutsk, Lermontov Str., 130
E-mail: alexedelev@gmail.com
MSc. Nguyễn Hoài Nam, Dr. Đoàn Văn Bình
Institute of Energy Science
18 - Hoàng Quốc Việt, Cầu Giấy, Hà Nội
Tóm tắt:
Chiến lược phát triển năng lượng quốc gia và Chiến lược tăng trưởng xanh của Việt Nam đã đặt ra mục tiêu đảm bảo an ninh năng lượng quốc gia đồng thời giảm thiểu các tác động đến môi trường của ngành năng lượng. Bài báo đã khảo sát sơ bộ khả năng của hệ thống năng lượng trong việc đáp ứng mục tiêu kép nêu trên thông qua các kịch bản liên quan tới giảm phát thải. Một sản lượng điện nhất định từ các nhà máy nhiệt điện than sẽ bị ngừng cung cấp và thay thế là các nguồn năng lượng tái tạo, thủy điện và nhiên liệu khí, điện hạt nhân. Nghiên cứu sử dụng công cụ phần mềm Corrective - mô hình tổ hợp nhiên liệu năng lượng (FEC) để thực hiện các phân tích và tính toán. Kết quả cho thấy, mục tiêu kép có thể đạt được nhưng đòi hỏi mức đầu tư lớn hơn và các vấn đề kỹ thuật, vận hành hệ thống khi có sự tham gia của các nguồn phân tán cần được giải quyết hợp lý.
Abstract:
Vietnam’s Strategy for Energy Development and Green Growth Strategy has set the double target for energy sector to ensure the national energy security and adverse impacts to environment must be reduced. This article investigates the possibilities of energy sector to achieve this target by examining different scenarios related to ecological restrictions (emissions reduction). Certain portion of coal thermal generation capacity has been assumed to be decreased while additional sources of renewable energy, gas, nuclear power and hydropower will be maximized to offset the demand. Fuel Energy Complex model – Corrective software has been used to undertaken the research. Calculation results show that it is possible for Vietnam to achieve the green growth targets and satisfy energy demand locally. However, this will require significant larger investment and technical problems of integrating distributed sources like wind and solar power.
I. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY SECURITY REQUIREMENT OF VIETNAM
Since industrial era, the world economic development has led to the exponential increase of natural resources and caused adverse impacts to environment. The exhaustion of natural resources and depletion of environmental quality are global challenges and requires the mutual efforts of all nations to deal with. Hence, sustainable development is being more and more important to development models all over the world and it is the inevitable way of human revolution.
In response to this, in August 2004, Sustainable Energy Development Orientation of Vietnam (Agenda 21) was issued by the Vietnamese Government. It is considered as a policy framework for formulation and implementation of national orientation toward sustainable energy system development.
In 2007, National Energy Development Strategy to 2050 [1] was adopted with the general goals in which prioritize the importance of energy security contributing to sustainably develop the energy system:
• To achieve the energy security for national security and independent socio-economic development;
• To efficiently produce and use energy from domestic resources;
• To prioritize the development of renewable energy, nuclear power, bio-energy to satisfy the domestic energy demand, particularly the island, remote and rural areas;
• Sustainably develop the energy system which harmonizes with environmental protection.
In this Strategy, the philosophy of national energy system development is complying with ultimate goal of energy security:
“Energy development should be integrated with national socio-economic strategy and be pioneer infrastructure which ensures the sustainability, completeness, diversity of energy resources and energy efficiency technologies…; national energy development should be in line with international integration…; simultaneously and reasonably develop the energy system comprising of power, oil, coal and renewable energy…; energy development should be integrated with ecological conservation to achieve sustainability”.
Energy security (ES) is known as state of protection of its citizens, society and national economy from a shortage in the provision of substantiated energy demands. Energy security is achieved, on one hand, by a sufficient supply of energy resources, on the other hand, by moderate demand satisfied by an efficient system of energy consumption. However, to achieve the double-target of energy security and environmental protection toward sustainability, a suitable roadmap for national energy system is necessarily required to be developed.
In this paper, the capability of Vietnam’s energy system to ensure energy security will be investigated with ecological constraints which are mentioned Vietnam’s Green Growth Strategy [2].
II. ECOLOGY RESTRICTIONS
Human activity and, first of all, development of industry and fast reduction of forests on the planet enhances an anthropogenic factor of growing concentration of the so called "greenhouse" gases (carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrogen oxide (NO2), etc.) in the atmosphere.
International Energy Agency states that three fourths of the CO2 volumes formed as a result of human activity are emitted when producing and using fossil fuels.
Fuel combustion is responsible for the most of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and particularly large fraction is from fuel combustion at power plants. Currently their fraction in the total CO2 emissions of the country is 35-36% [3].
Estimation of CO2 emissions in electric power sector in the long-term prospect will allow a more substantial judgment on the potentialities for Vietnam to fulfill its obligations. In its turn a territorial analysis of greenhouse gas emissions will reveal the most unfavorable regions and will allow one to plan measures on emission reduction, to elaborate criteria of their selection and thus determine a potential for decreasing the total greenhouse emissions, both for individual territories and for Vietnam as a whole.
The factors that affect the volumes of CO2 emissions and call for account in the studies include: dynamics in change of internal demand for electric power depending on the economy development scenarios and energy saving policy, development scales of nuclear power plants and renewable sources, scales and rates of technological progress in energy, structure and volumes of the fuel consumed (gas, coal, fuel oil), etc.
The greenhouse gas emission reductions of Vietnam in next four decades are set in Green Growth Strategy as follows:
• 2010 – 2020: to reduce GHG emissions by 8%-10% compared to year 2010’s figure, energy losses decrease by 1 – 1.5% per year, GHG emission reduction by energy sector from 10% to BAU;
2030: to reduce GHG emissions by 1.5%-2% per year; GHG emission reduction by energy sector from 20% to BAU;
III. FEC MODEL ENHANCEMENT
It is practically impossible to simultaneously estimate the influence of changes in these factors on the volumes of CO2 emissions without a FEC model [4].
where X – the solution vector of the energy resources production, extraction, generation, transformation or transmission facilities usage; – the matrix of technological coefficients (rates) of energy resources production, extraction, generation, transformation or transmission facilities; – the vector of energy resources supply and transmission facilities capacity; - the energy resources demand vector; - the solution vector of energy resources consumption.
Goal function is:
The first part of the goal function represents total costs of the FEC operation. The С is cost vector of the energy resources production and transmission facilities.
The second part of the goal function characterizes financial losses due to energy resource shortages .The last is equal to the difference ( ). The is cost vector of energy resource shortages.
To take into account the ecology restrictions a new constraint was added to the FEC model:
where –environmental pollutant emission rate of energy resources production, extraction, generation, transformation or transmission facility , –value of environmental pollutant emission limit for zone .
IV. RESEARCH
In 2010, Vietnam’s population was 87.9 million.
The current income per capita of Vietnam is about USD 2,850 (in 2005 USD PPP). The government has set a target of GDP growth between 6.5% and 7.0% per year over the period 2010–2015. The government also expects population growth to be under 1.2% over the same period. This outlook, which takes into consideration the current global economic context and Vietnam’s future economic prospects, projects an average annual GDP growth rate of 6.3% over the outlook period, and a population growth rate of 0.7% per year over the same period, with the total reaching 104 million people by 2035. The rate of urbanization growth is higher, at an average annual rate of 1.9%; this means over 50% of the population is expected to be living in urban centres by 2035. GDP per capita (in 2005 USD PPP) is expected to exceed USD 11,000 by 2035, comparable to the equivalent figure for Malaysia in 2005 (USD 11 570) [5].
Energy sector
Under the current economic conditions and business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions, the total final energy demand of Vietnam will continue to increase at an average annual rate of about 3.6% over the outlook period. This rate is less than the forecasted GDP growth of the Vietnam’s economy. Energy consumption will increase in the every economy sector including residential and commercial sectors which are influenced by the growing modernization within country.The greatest growth is in the industry and transport sectors.
Economic growth and rising household incomes mean the use of air conditioning for cooling interiors is growing in Vietnam. It is common in commercial buildings and also in private urban homes, and the demand for air conditioning is expected to continue to increase over the outlook period. In contrast, the use of biomass fuels for cooking in rural areas (and for home heating in mountainous areas) will decrease.
The feasibility of projects to build 2 nuclear power plants with a total capacity of 4,000–8,000 MW in Ninh Thuan province of central Vietnam is under studying [6]. This BAU forecast considers that the nuclear power plants (1 unit -1,000MW).will be commissioned in 2020. The electricity generation sources and fuels of Vietnam in 2030 are expected to be in the following descending order: coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, renewable energy and fuel oil.
Electricity generation is supposed to increase at an average annual rate of 9.7% and to reach 677,3 TW*h in 2030 [7]. The share of hydro power stations in the electricity production will decrease considerably from 33,4% to 9,2% in the investigated time period because the most of possible locations to build big and medium hydro power plants had to be fully occupied. By contrast, coal-fired generation will substantially increase and will have the largest share (67,3%) in 2030. The share of gas-fired power plants is forecasted to decrease to 12,5% in 2030. Meanwhile, the share of nuclear power plants will increase from zero in 2010 to 10,4% in 2030. In addition, as the government of Vietnam continues to pursue its goal to increase usage of the domestic resources then new renewable energy sources, this will be added to the electricity generation especially in the remote locations where connection to the grid is not economically feasible. The share of renewable energy sources will increase from 0 in 2010 to 0,7% in 2030 [8].
In response to this, in August 2004, Sustainable Energy Development Orientation of Vietnam (Agenda 21) was issued by the Vietnamese Government. It is considered as a policy framework for formulation and implementation of national orientation toward sustainable energy system development.
In 2007, National Energy Development Strategy to 2050 [1] was adopted with the general goals in which prioritize the importance of energy security contributing to sustainably develop the energy system:
• To achieve the energy security for national security and independent socio-economic development;
• To efficiently produce and use energy from domestic resources;
• To prioritize the development of renewable energy, nuclear power, bio-energy to satisfy the domestic energy demand, particularly the island, remote and rural areas;
• Sustainably develop the energy system which harmonizes with environmental protection.
In this Strategy, the philosophy of national energy system development is complying with ultimate goal of energy security:
“Energy development should be integrated with national socio-economic strategy and be pioneer infrastructure which ensures the sustainability, completeness, diversity of energy resources and energy efficiency technologies…; national energy development should be in line with international integration…; simultaneously and reasonably develop the energy system comprising of power, oil, coal and renewable energy…; energy development should be integrated with ecological conservation to achieve sustainability”.
Energy security (ES) is known as state of protection of its citizens, society and national economy from a shortage in the provision of substantiated energy demands. Energy security is achieved, on one hand, by a sufficient supply of energy resources, on the other hand, by moderate demand satisfied by an efficient system of energy consumption. However, to achieve the double-target of energy security and environmental protection toward sustainability, a suitable roadmap for national energy system is necessarily required to be developed.
In this paper, the capability of Vietnam’s energy system to ensure energy security will be investigated with ecological constraints which are mentioned Vietnam’s Green Growth Strategy [2].
II. ECOLOGY RESTRICTIONS
Human activity and, first of all, development of industry and fast reduction of forests on the planet enhances an anthropogenic factor of growing concentration of the so called "greenhouse" gases (carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrogen oxide (NO2), etc.) in the atmosphere.
International Energy Agency states that three fourths of the CO2 volumes formed as a result of human activity are emitted when producing and using fossil fuels.
Fuel combustion is responsible for the most of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and particularly large fraction is from fuel combustion at power plants. Currently their fraction in the total CO2 emissions of the country is 35-36% [3].
Estimation of CO2 emissions in electric power sector in the long-term prospect will allow a more substantial judgment on the potentialities for Vietnam to fulfill its obligations. In its turn a territorial analysis of greenhouse gas emissions will reveal the most unfavorable regions and will allow one to plan measures on emission reduction, to elaborate criteria of their selection and thus determine a potential for decreasing the total greenhouse emissions, both for individual territories and for Vietnam as a whole.
The factors that affect the volumes of CO2 emissions and call for account in the studies include: dynamics in change of internal demand for electric power depending on the economy development scenarios and energy saving policy, development scales of nuclear power plants and renewable sources, scales and rates of technological progress in energy, structure and volumes of the fuel consumed (gas, coal, fuel oil), etc.
The greenhouse gas emission reductions of Vietnam in next four decades are set in Green Growth Strategy as follows:
• 2010 – 2020: to reduce GHG emissions by 8%-10% compared to year 2010’s figure, energy losses decrease by 1 – 1.5% per year, GHG emission reduction by energy sector from 10% to BAU;
2030: to reduce GHG emissions by 1.5%-2% per year; GHG emission reduction by energy sector from 20% to BAU;
III. FEC MODEL ENHANCEMENT
It is practically impossible to simultaneously estimate the influence of changes in these factors on the volumes of CO2 emissions without a FEC model [4].
where X – the solution vector of the energy resources production, extraction, generation, transformation or transmission facilities usage; – the matrix of technological coefficients (rates) of energy resources production, extraction, generation, transformation or transmission facilities; – the vector of energy resources supply and transmission facilities capacity; - the energy resources demand vector; - the solution vector of energy resources consumption.Goal function is:
The first part of the goal function represents total costs of the FEC operation. The С is cost vector of the energy resources production and transmission facilities.The second part of the goal function characterizes financial losses due to energy resource shortages .The last is equal to the difference ( ). The is cost vector of energy resource shortages.
To take into account the ecology restrictions a new constraint was added to the FEC model:
where –environmental pollutant emission rate of energy resources production, extraction, generation, transformation or transmission facility , –value of environmental pollutant emission limit for zone .IV. RESEARCH
In 2010, Vietnam’s population was 87.9 million.
The current income per capita of Vietnam is about USD 2,850 (in 2005 USD PPP). The government has set a target of GDP growth between 6.5% and 7.0% per year over the period 2010–2015. The government also expects population growth to be under 1.2% over the same period. This outlook, which takes into consideration the current global economic context and Vietnam’s future economic prospects, projects an average annual GDP growth rate of 6.3% over the outlook period, and a population growth rate of 0.7% per year over the same period, with the total reaching 104 million people by 2035. The rate of urbanization growth is higher, at an average annual rate of 1.9%; this means over 50% of the population is expected to be living in urban centres by 2035. GDP per capita (in 2005 USD PPP) is expected to exceed USD 11,000 by 2035, comparable to the equivalent figure for Malaysia in 2005 (USD 11 570) [5].
Energy sector
Under the current economic conditions and business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions, the total final energy demand of Vietnam will continue to increase at an average annual rate of about 3.6% over the outlook period. This rate is less than the forecasted GDP growth of the Vietnam’s economy. Energy consumption will increase in the every economy sector including residential and commercial sectors which are influenced by the growing modernization within country.The greatest growth is in the industry and transport sectors.
Economic growth and rising household incomes mean the use of air conditioning for cooling interiors is growing in Vietnam. It is common in commercial buildings and also in private urban homes, and the demand for air conditioning is expected to continue to increase over the outlook period. In contrast, the use of biomass fuels for cooking in rural areas (and for home heating in mountainous areas) will decrease.
The feasibility of projects to build 2 nuclear power plants with a total capacity of 4,000–8,000 MW in Ninh Thuan province of central Vietnam is under studying [6]. This BAU forecast considers that the nuclear power plants (1 unit -1,000MW).will be commissioned in 2020. The electricity generation sources and fuels of Vietnam in 2030 are expected to be in the following descending order: coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, renewable energy and fuel oil.
Electricity generation is supposed to increase at an average annual rate of 9.7% and to reach 677,3 TW*h in 2030 [7]. The share of hydro power stations in the electricity production will decrease considerably from 33,4% to 9,2% in the investigated time period because the most of possible locations to build big and medium hydro power plants had to be fully occupied. By contrast, coal-fired generation will substantially increase and will have the largest share (67,3%) in 2030. The share of gas-fired power plants is forecasted to decrease to 12,5% in 2030. Meanwhile, the share of nuclear power plants will increase from zero in 2010 to 10,4% in 2030. In addition, as the government of Vietnam continues to pursue its goal to increase usage of the domestic resources then new renewable energy sources, this will be added to the electricity generation especially in the remote locations where connection to the grid is not economically feasible. The share of renewable energy sources will increase from 0 in 2010 to 0,7% in 2030 [8].
Fig 1. BAU scenario electricity generation
Source: Synthesis of National Master Power Plan of Vietnam 2011-2020-2030
Fig 2. The structure of fuel consumption of energy sector of Vietnam
The structure of fuel consumption of power plants of the country in 2010 almost consists of 50% of natural gas, 4,4% of fuel oil and 44,2% of coal and other fossil fuels. As investigations show gas fraction will decrease down to 13% and coal fraction will increase up to 77% in 2030 (Fig.2).
The CO2 emissions as results of fuel combustion on power plants of Vietnam were about 42 million tones at 2010 year. To meet the electricity demand of the Vietnamese economy in the future emissions will grow by 2.7 times (111 million tons) to 2015, 5.3 times (224 million tons) to 2020 and 12 times (494 million tons) to 2030.
Now more and more countries project the energy development taking into account the reduction of CO2 emissions to deal with the climate warming and to reduce the anthropogenic pressure on the environment. So two possible scenarios how to reduce greenhousegas (GHG) emissions were analyzed below.
Alternative Scenarios
To address the energy security, economic development and environmental sustainability challenges posed by the business-as-usual (BAU) outcomes, two sets of alternative scenarios were developed for Vietnam power sector. The restriction was imposedon CO2 emission so fall country and the optimal power development is calculated using the FEC model (1)-(5). It was assumed that the total capacity of hydropower, natural gas and nuclear power plants could be higher than in the BAU scenario. For example, it is supposed to build natural gas power plants and to consume about 5,000kTOE of natural gas in the alternative scenarios. Also reduction of CO2 emissions in the energy sector could not be achieved without nuclear power plants. So the advanced development of nuclear power industry was considered. An assumption is that not 1 but 2 units of nuclear power plant with total capacity of 2,000 MW in 2020 and 8 units with total capacity of 15,000MW in 2030 will be built in Vietnam.
First scenario:10% GHG emissions reduction comparatively to BAU.
The first scenario is supposed to reduce emissions comparatively to BAU scenario: 5% to 2015, 10% to 2020 and 2030. In other words, GHG emissions reduction will be 6 million tons to 2015, about 24 million tons to 2020 and 54 million tons to 2030 respectively (fig.3).
Fig 3. Forecast of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion at power plants of Vietnam, mil.t.
The CO2 emissions as results of fuel combustion on power plants of Vietnam were about 42 million tones at 2010 year. To meet the electricity demand of the Vietnamese economy in the future emissions will grow by 2.7 times (111 million tons) to 2015, 5.3 times (224 million tons) to 2020 and 12 times (494 million tons) to 2030.
Now more and more countries project the energy development taking into account the reduction of CO2 emissions to deal with the climate warming and to reduce the anthropogenic pressure on the environment. So two possible scenarios how to reduce greenhousegas (GHG) emissions were analyzed below.
Alternative Scenarios
To address the energy security, economic development and environmental sustainability challenges posed by the business-as-usual (BAU) outcomes, two sets of alternative scenarios were developed for Vietnam power sector. The restriction was imposedon CO2 emission so fall country and the optimal power development is calculated using the FEC model (1)-(5). It was assumed that the total capacity of hydropower, natural gas and nuclear power plants could be higher than in the BAU scenario. For example, it is supposed to build natural gas power plants and to consume about 5,000kTOE of natural gas in the alternative scenarios. Also reduction of CO2 emissions in the energy sector could not be achieved without nuclear power plants. So the advanced development of nuclear power industry was considered. An assumption is that not 1 but 2 units of nuclear power plant with total capacity of 2,000 MW in 2020 and 8 units with total capacity of 15,000MW in 2030 will be built in Vietnam.
First scenario:10% GHG emissions reduction comparatively to BAU.
The first scenario is supposed to reduce emissions comparatively to BAU scenario: 5% to 2015, 10% to 2020 and 2030. In other words, GHG emissions reduction will be 6 million tons to 2015, about 24 million tons to 2020 and 54 million tons to 2030 respectively (fig.3).
Fig 3. Forecast of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion at power plants of Vietnam, mil.t.
The reduction of CO2 emission in 2015 is possible only thanks to the growth of electricity production by gas power plants (taking into account replacement of fuel oil) and the displacement of coal, which can be exported. The share of natural gas in the fuel balance rises to 50% compared to 32% in BAU scenario. The share of gas in 2020 is reduced to 34% and to 21.5% in 2030.
The share of natural gas is also increased from 24% to 37% in the structure of electricity production (fig.1). The share of renewable energy is not significant: the production of electricity by wind farms does not exceed 600 GW*h, at solar power plant - 100 GW*h, which is not more than 0.5% of the total electricity production. Thus the electricity generation by wind farms can reach about 5000 GWh in 2030, but their share in the total production will decrease to 0.1% [9].
Also an increase of the share of electricity production by nuclear power plants from 2.1% to 4.9% is expected in 2020, growth from 10.4% to 15.5% is expected in 2030. It requires advanced development of the nuclear power industry.
The reduction of CO2 emission in 2020 is achieved by increasing the share of natural gas in the fuel balance to 33.7% which is on 13.7% greater than in the BAU scenario. The share of natural gasin 2030 will be also above 21.5% compared with 13.1%in the BAU scenario.
Vietnam's participation in the Kyoto II seems to be impossible since expected emissions growth in 2020 is 5 times greater than in 2010. Then, there is no possibility to keep the value of CO2 emission of 2010 in the future and there fore to reduce it.
Second scenario: 20% GHG emissions reduction comparatively to BAU.
The second scenario assumes greater reduction of CO2 emission in the energy sector by 44 million tons of CO2 in 2020 and 110 million tons in 2030, so CO2 emission will become 180 million tons in 2020 and 385 million tons in 2030.
The target of restriction is achieved mainly by making maximum usage of hydropower power plants. Thus the share of hydropower power plants in 2020 will be increased to 25.7% and to 19.2% in 2030 (the same in the BAU scenario is 17, 2% in 2020 and 9, 2% in 2030). It means two times growth of the installed capacity of hydropower power plants.
V. CONCLUSION
1. As shown in the article, FEC model functions to take into account requirements of ES and ecological restriction like reduction of СО2 emissions.
2. Preliminary calculations show that the development of the Vietnam’s energy sector can lead to high anthropogenic pressure on the environment. The growth of installed capacity in industrialized areas can dramatically increase the concentration of harmful substances in the air and can negatively affect to the human’s health.
3. To implement the strategy of "green growth", it is necessary to build a large amount of renewable energy sources, but it is linked multiple investment increase and irregular production of electricity at wind farms and solar power plants. The further development of hydropower is related with construction of medium and large hydropower plants, which will increase the number of hours of installed capacity use and efficiency of the power plant as a whole.
4. The analysis shows that Vietnam can initialize programs to reduce CO2 emissions in the framework of Kyoto II, but there is no opportunity to trade the quotas.
The share of natural gas is also increased from 24% to 37% in the structure of electricity production (fig.1). The share of renewable energy is not significant: the production of electricity by wind farms does not exceed 600 GW*h, at solar power plant - 100 GW*h, which is not more than 0.5% of the total electricity production. Thus the electricity generation by wind farms can reach about 5000 GWh in 2030, but their share in the total production will decrease to 0.1% [9].
Also an increase of the share of electricity production by nuclear power plants from 2.1% to 4.9% is expected in 2020, growth from 10.4% to 15.5% is expected in 2030. It requires advanced development of the nuclear power industry.
The reduction of CO2 emission in 2020 is achieved by increasing the share of natural gas in the fuel balance to 33.7% which is on 13.7% greater than in the BAU scenario. The share of natural gasin 2030 will be also above 21.5% compared with 13.1%in the BAU scenario.
Vietnam's participation in the Kyoto II seems to be impossible since expected emissions growth in 2020 is 5 times greater than in 2010. Then, there is no possibility to keep the value of CO2 emission of 2010 in the future and there fore to reduce it.
Second scenario: 20% GHG emissions reduction comparatively to BAU.
The second scenario assumes greater reduction of CO2 emission in the energy sector by 44 million tons of CO2 in 2020 and 110 million tons in 2030, so CO2 emission will become 180 million tons in 2020 and 385 million tons in 2030.
The target of restriction is achieved mainly by making maximum usage of hydropower power plants. Thus the share of hydropower power plants in 2020 will be increased to 25.7% and to 19.2% in 2030 (the same in the BAU scenario is 17, 2% in 2020 and 9, 2% in 2030). It means two times growth of the installed capacity of hydropower power plants.
V. CONCLUSION
1. As shown in the article, FEC model functions to take into account requirements of ES and ecological restriction like reduction of СО2 emissions.
2. Preliminary calculations show that the development of the Vietnam’s energy sector can lead to high anthropogenic pressure on the environment. The growth of installed capacity in industrialized areas can dramatically increase the concentration of harmful substances in the air and can negatively affect to the human’s health.
3. To implement the strategy of "green growth", it is necessary to build a large amount of renewable energy sources, but it is linked multiple investment increase and irregular production of electricity at wind farms and solar power plants. The further development of hydropower is related with construction of medium and large hydropower plants, which will increase the number of hours of installed capacity use and efficiency of the power plant as a whole.
4. The analysis shows that Vietnam can initialize programs to reduce CO2 emissions in the framework of Kyoto II, but there is no opportunity to trade the quotas.
REFERENCES
1. The Vietnamese Government, National Energy Development Strategy to 2050, Hanoi, 2007
2. The Vietnamese Government, National Green Growth Strategy, Hanoi, 2012
3. Saneev B.G., Lagerev A.V., Khanaeva V.N., Tchemezov A.V. Outlooks of Russia’s power industry development in the 21st century and greenhouse gas emissions // IEEE Power Engineering Society. General Meeting. 13-17 July 2003. Toronto, Ontario Canada
4. Alexei V. Edelev, Nguyen Quang Ninh, Nguyen Van The, Tran Viet Hung, Le Tat Tu, Doan Binh Duong, Nguyen Hoai Nam. Developing “Corrective” software: 3-region model. //Proceedings of International Conference “Green energy and development”, Hanoi, Vietnam, November 2012- pp.41-52.
5. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook – 5th Edition –http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/file/2013/2/22/Investment_Supplement.pdf
6. LE, Doan Phac Programme for Nuclear Power Development in Vietnam -http://www.iaea.org/INPRO/activities/project1/Survey_LRNES/Vietnam.pdf
7. Institute of Energy, National Master Power Plan 2011 – 2020 – 2030, Hanoi, 2011.
8. Nguyen Anh Tuan. A Case Study on Power Sector Restructuring in Vietnam -http://www.nbr.org/downloads/pdfs/eta/PES_2012_summitpaper_Nguyen.pdf
9. Le Chi Hiep. Renewable energy in Vietnam current status & future -http://www.nhietlanh.net/renewable_energy_in_VietNam.pdf
1. The Vietnamese Government, National Energy Development Strategy to 2050, Hanoi, 2007
2. The Vietnamese Government, National Green Growth Strategy, Hanoi, 2012
3. Saneev B.G., Lagerev A.V., Khanaeva V.N., Tchemezov A.V. Outlooks of Russia’s power industry development in the 21st century and greenhouse gas emissions // IEEE Power Engineering Society. General Meeting. 13-17 July 2003. Toronto, Ontario Canada
4. Alexei V. Edelev, Nguyen Quang Ninh, Nguyen Van The, Tran Viet Hung, Le Tat Tu, Doan Binh Duong, Nguyen Hoai Nam. Developing “Corrective” software: 3-region model. //Proceedings of International Conference “Green energy and development”, Hanoi, Vietnam, November 2012- pp.41-52.
5. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook – 5th Edition –http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/file/2013/2/22/Investment_Supplement.pdf
6. LE, Doan Phac Programme for Nuclear Power Development in Vietnam -http://www.iaea.org/INPRO/activities/project1/Survey_LRNES/Vietnam.pdf
7. Institute of Energy, National Master Power Plan 2011 – 2020 – 2030, Hanoi, 2011.
8. Nguyen Anh Tuan. A Case Study on Power Sector Restructuring in Vietnam -http://www.nbr.org/downloads/pdfs/eta/PES_2012_summitpaper_Nguyen.pdf
9. Le Chi Hiep. Renewable energy in Vietnam current status & future -http://www.nhietlanh.net/renewable_energy_in_VietNam.pdf
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